| Monday, June 14th |
What’s the Difference?
By Ellis Eyeland
Somebody needs to do some explaining. Two months into the season, the Eastern Conference is batting a paltry .233 while the Western Conference is batting a healthy .270. So, what’s the difference? The ballparks seemed to be the first place to check, so I opened up Excel and built a little spreadsheet comparing ballpark factors. I decided to add up the numbers for L/R AVG and L/R HR along with the factors for 2B and 3B (I know these last two numbers don’t really affect the number of hits, but they can affect the offense so I included them) to come up with a ‘Total Offense’ number. Immediately, I could tell I was on to something. The average ‘Total Offense’ in the West was 617, almost 34 points higher than the East.
To make sure my numbers weren’t being skewed too much by the doubles and triples factors, I added the sum of the AVG and HR factors to the ‘Total Offense’ number (thus, cutting the value of the doubles and triples in half). I called this new number the ‘PEN’, although I’ve since forgotten what it stands for. The Western Conference PEN was 58 points higher than that of the Eastern Conference.
What does this all mean? Well, it’s hard to say really. While it does provide concrete evidence that the offensive numbers in the West should be higher than those of the East, it doesn’t tell us how much higher is normal. To try to get a grip on this issue, I created a ‘Power Rating’. The ‘Power Rating’ is essentially the PEN divided by a number close to the league norm. In theory, the difference in league OPS should be similar to the difference in league ‘Power Rating’. The East earned a ‘Power Rating’ of 102, while the west earned a 108, a 5.8% difference. The East has an OPS of .675, while the West has an OPS of .761, a difference of 12%. Close, but not close enough for my tastes.
In my eyes, this indicates one of three things must be truer: Either the pitching in the Eastern Conference is head and shoulders above the pitching in the Western Conference, or the batting in the Western Conference is clearly better than the batting in the Eastern Conference. Or a little of both. Now that I’ve got you thoroughly confused, check out my data below. (Note the league-low power rating of 84 in Richmond… Could this explain their great pitching thus far?)
|
ATLANTIC |
RH AVG |
LH AVG |
RH HR |
LH HR |
2B |
3B |
TOT OFF |
AVG & HR |
PEN |
POWER RATING |
|
Richmond |
105.00 |
103.00 |
60.00 |
61.00 |
87.00 |
135.00 |
551.00 |
329.00 |
880 |
84 |
|
Hartford |
100.00 |
100.00 |
118.00 |
92.00 |
105.00 |
95.00 |
610.00 |
410.00 |
1020 |
107 |
|
Raleigh |
92.00 |
89.00 |
85.00 |
70.00 |
120.00 |
130.00 |
586.00 |
336.00 |
922 |
97 |
|
Orlando |
99.00 |
99.00 |
112.00 |
112.00 |
95.00 |
50.00 |
567.00 |
422.00 |
989 |
104 |
|
Division Average |
99.00 |
97.75 |
93.75 |
83.75 |
101.75 |
102.50 |
578.50 |
374.25 |
953 |
100 |
|
CENTRAL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Winston-Salem |
92.00 |
90.00 |
88.00 |
89.00 |
101.00 |
101.00 |
561.00 |
359.00 |
920 |
97 |
|
Columbus |
100.00 |
100.00 |
110.00 |
113.00 |
98.00 |
60.00 |
581.00 |
423.00 |
1004 |
106 |
|
Indianapolis |
102.00 |
99.00 |
100.00 |
92.00 |
90.00 |
120.00 |
603.00 |
393.00 |
996 |
105 |
|
New Orleans |
100.00 |
101.00 |
97.00 |
100.00 |
110.00 |
92.00 |
600.00 |
398.00 |
998 |
105 |
|
Division Average |
98.50 |
97.50 |
98.75 |
98.50 |
99.75 |
93.25 |
586.25 |
393.25 |
980 |
103 |
|
League Average |
98.75 |
97.63 |
96.25 |
91.13 |
100.75 |
97.88 |
582.38 |
383.75 |
966 |
102 |
|
MIDWEST |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oklahoma City |
99.00 |
98.00 |
104.00 |
121.00 |
100.00 |
115.00 |
637.00 |
422.00 |
1059 |
112 |
|
Winnipeg |
103.00 |
104.00 |
100.00 |
100.00 |
101.00 |
102.00 |
610.00 |
407.00 |
1017 |
107 |
|
Calgary |
99.00 |
105.00 |
79.00 |
121.00 |
98.00 |
112.00 |
614.00 |
404.00 |
1018 |
107 |
|
Wichita |
95.00 |
95.00 |
90.00 |
90.00 |
100.00 |
110.00 |
580.00 |
370.00 |
950 |
100 |
|
Division Average |
99.00 |
100.50 |
93.25 |
108.00 |
99.75 |
109.75 |
610.25 |
400.75 |
1011 |
106 |
|
PACIFIC |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Portland |
99.00 |
95.00 |
117.00 |
113.00 |
95.00 |
92.00 |
611.00 |
424.00 |
1035 |
109 |
|
Vancouver |
119.00 |
118.00 |
41.00 |
54.00 |
85.00 |
180.00 |
597.00 |
332.00 |
929 |
98 |
|
Las Vegas |
97.00 |
97.00 |
117.00 |
117.00 |
110.00 |
70.00 |
608.00 |
428.00 |
1036 |
109 |
|
Mexico City |
106.00 |
108.00 |
138.00 |
117.00 |
125.00 |
85.00 |
679.00 |
469.00 |
1148 |
121 |
|
Division Average |
105.25 |
104.50 |
103.25 |
100.25 |
103.75 |
106.75 |
623.75 |
413.25 |
1037 |
109 |
|
League Average |
102.13 |
102.50 |
98.25 |
104.13 |
101.75 |
108.25 |
617.00 |
407.00 |
1024 |
108 |
UPDATE….
I decided to amend this article because we’ve just simmed two intense weeks of solid inter-league play. The East’s batting average went up 5 points to .238, and the West’s average dropped 5 points to .265. Is this an indication that the pitchers are better in the East? Eastern batters are teeing off of Western pitchers while Eastern pitchers are shutting down western bats. But how much of this is due to Eastern players playing in places like Mexico City (121 power rating) and Oklahoma City (112 power rating) while Western players are coping with Richmond (84 power rating) and Raleigh (97 power rating).
Let’s do one more OPS to PEN comparison. As I found earlier, the PEN difference between the East and West is 5.8%. Through June 14th, the East has an OPS of .691, while the West has an OPS of .755. That is a difference of 8%. That means the gap between the leagues has been cut by 4%. My theory is that by season’s end, the difference between East and West OPS will be between 5% and 6%. Will I be right?